Mindanao could be the hardest hit by the looming El Niño episode due to high water loss in the region, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration on Saturday.
Ana Liza Solis, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief, said based on historical data, Mindanao is losing over 35 percent of rainwater amid dry spells and drought due to El Niño.
The phenomenon is forecast to persist until 2024.
“Based on studies, around 12 percent is lost in the Luzon area so that is depending on the timing. Around 21 percent (is lost) in the Visayas area. The rainwater reduction in Mindanao is much bigger,” Solis said.
“Mindanao is much affected since this is the so-called evenly distributed rainfall throughout the year. Considering there could be short dry season, usually (Mindanao) is the (region) badly affected when there is El Niño,” she added.
Cebu and Bohol provinces in the Visayas are usually the hardest hit by the dry spell and drought during the El Niño phenomenon, she said.
Chances of the weather phenomenon developing in the country is still high at “more than 70 percent,” and that it could happen in two months, the Pagasa official said.
On the other hand, Marcelino Villafuerte, Impact Assessment head under the Climatology and Agrometeorology Division, earlier said PAGASA may issue an El Niño alert by next month.
El Niño will begin by the third quarter of 2023 or between July and September, and will last until next year, the weather bureau said.
Meanwhile, yesterday’s heat index at 2 p.m. in Metro Manila was 43 degrees Celsius.
The weather bureau also warned of possible flash floods and landslides in parts of the Philippines due to scattered thunderstorms.
In its 24-hour weather forecast, PAGASA said an Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is currently affecting Mindanao and Palawan.
The ITCZ is expected to bring cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms in Eastern Visayas, Mindanao and Palawan.
Metro Manila and the rest of the country, on the other hand, may also experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms caused by easterlies.
PAGASA warned of possible flash floods and landslides in high-risk areas due to heavy rains.