Public complacency amid a slowdown in COVID-19 infections could lead to a fresh wave of cases in a few months, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III warned Thursday.
Duque issued the warning after reports that visitors were flocking to the Manila Baywalk Dolomite Beach and other areas, as lockdown restrictions in Metro Manila eased.
"These are super spreader events. This is potential for a possible surge in the future [maybe] 4 to 6 months," he said.
The Philippines logged 4,806 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, bringing the total number of infections to 2,740,111.
There were 260 new fatalities, bringing the COVID-19 death toll to 41,237.
The DOH also reported 5,934 new recoveries, bringing the total recoveries to 2,633,039.
There were 65,835 active cases, of which 78.7 percent were mild, 6.2 percent were asymptomatic, 2 percent were critical, 4.6 percent were severe, and 8.53 percent were moderate.
The positivity rate was at 10.9 percent, based on samples of 52,262 individuals screened on Oct. 19, Monday.
Nationwide, 58 percent of ICU beds, 45 percent of isolation beds, 43 percent of ward beds, and 42 percent of ventilators, were in use.
In Metro Manila, 52 percent of ICU beds, 37 percent of isolation beds, 40 percent of ward beds, and 37 percent of ventilators, were in use.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the alert level for the National Capital Region could be lowered if the number of infections continues to decline.
In an interview on CNN Philippines, she said the NCR's current seven-day moving average in COVID-19 cases is 1,156.
Vergeire said a less than 500 average, like in the months before the case surge in March and April, is a "comfortable number" for the lowering of the alert level.
The independent OCTA Research Group on Thursday said COVID-19 cases in the Philippines are expected to decrease to pre-Delta surge levels by the end of October amid the continued decrease in reproduction numbers.
In a tweet, OCTA fellow Guido David noted that reproduction numbers both nationwide and in the National Capital Region (NCR) continue to go down.
As of the latest monitoring by the independent research team, the reproduction number—which is the number of people one COVID-19 case can infect—was at 0.55 in the entire country and 0.47 in the NCR.
The government will also look at the health care utilization rates before deciding on alert levels, she said.
An infectious disease expert, meanwhile, said there was no need to panic over reports of a Delta coronavirus subvariant detected in some European countries and Israel.
Dr. Edsel Salvana, a member of the Department of Health (DOH) Technical Advisory Group, said in an interview on radio dzBB, that more study is needed regarding AY 4.2. subvariant.
A report from Agence France-Press report said the AY 4.2. variant has turned up several times in the United Kingdom.
“There is a need to study it but there's no need to panic," he said.
Salvana said the information is that the subvariant "has increased transmissibility similar or just slightly higher than Delta."
“It is not yet formally considered a variant. It's just like Delta," Salvana said.
The Delta variant remains the most common lineage among the samples sequenced in the Philippines at 29.2 percent, the Department of Health said.
The Palace, meanwhile, said that regions and provinces now included in the pilot run of COVID-19 alert level system (ALS) and were consulted before its implementation.
Presidential spokesman Harry Roque made the clarification after the League of Provinces of the Philippines (LPP) appealed to the government to postpone the implementation of ALS in their respective areas and localities until next month.
“May I clarify. All the regions and provinces that will implement the alert level system have been consulted,” Roque said.
“Maybe not all the league of governors were informed and consulted because it will not be implemented in all the provinces,” said Roque.
“But the areas under the expanded pilot testing were consulted since local governments will be the ones to implement the alert level system anyway,” he added.
The alert level system, a granular type of quarantine restriction, was piloted in the NCR but will be expanded to provinces starting next week.
Marinduque Gov. Presbitero Velasco Jr., the league’s chief said that they have reservations on the implementation of the ALS, adding that provincial chief executives need to study the rules and disseminate these to their constituents.
Under the alert level system, certain areas under Level 3 and lower will be allowed more mobility compared to those under Level 4. Some establishments will be allowed to operate under a 30 percent capacity indoors and 50 percent outdoors.