The incidence of COVID-19 infections in the country is on the rise again, according to the Department of Health (DOH).
The Philippines on Sunday recorded 3,657 new COVID-19 cases and 13 new deaths, the DOH records showed.
This is the highest daily tally in more than 5 months or since Feb. 12, ABS-CBN Data Analytics Team head Edson Guido said.
The country logged a total of 19,536 new COVID-19 cases, during the past week, indicating a 33-percent increase from the week before, the DOH said on Monday.
The DOH data showed an average of 2,791 infections per day from July 18 to 24.
Of the additional infections during the week, 56 were classified as severe and critical, bringing to 666 such cases admitted to hospitals across the country. The figure is 77 cases higher than the 589 patients recorded during the previous week.
A total of 578 or 21.7 percent of 2,664 intensive care unit (ICU) beds for COVID-19 patients were occupied as of Sunday, according to the latest DOH bulletin.
“Our latest projections are showing that these case increases may translate to a spike in total and ICU admissions in October, if compliance with minimum public health standard (MPHS) continues to decline and booster rates remain low,” the DOH said in a statement.
During the past week, the DOH said it verified 42 more COVID-related fatalities nationwide, broken down as follows: one each in April and October 2021; 13 in August 2021; nine each in May, June and July 2021.
As of Sunday, the country’s total confirmed COVID-19 cases stood at 3,752,534, of which 27,116 were active.
Meanwhile, some 71 million people in the country have been fully vaccinated against the respiratory disease, 15.9 million of whom have received their booster shots.
However, the OCTA Research Group predicted that the Philippines could reach 4,000 daily COVID cases next week.
Aside from Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Central Luzon and Western Visayas have reported a rise in virus infections, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said.
“It’s possible that we will reach 4,000 cases per day nationwide next week. We can also see that the increase in cases is not that fast, so it’s not that alarming.),” David said in a televised briefing.
“But again, the public should be aware that COVID is still here,” he added.
It is possible that the BA.2.75, dubbed “Centaurus” due to its fast transmission, has entered the country though genome sequencing has yet to detect it, David said.
“The Centaurus is more transmissible, but similar to BA.5, we don’t expect severe disease. However, this is just from preliminary data,” he said.
“Small waves” of increases in COVID-19 cases are possible in the Philippines until the last quarter of 2022, Professor Jomar Rabajante of the University of the Philippines (UP) Pandemic Response Team earlier said.
OCTA said the COVID-19 positivity rate of the National Capital Region (NCR) has remained at 14.1 percent.
David previously said the positivity rate in the region was 14.6 percent as of July 20.
The positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested.
Meanwhile, David said the region’s one-week growth rate remained at 25 percent.
“The weekly growth rate… two weeks ago it decreased to around 23 percent so we thought maybe we are about to reach the peak, but it remains at around 25 percent,” he said at the Laging Handa briefing.
According to David, the region’s reproduction number was 1.38, similar to last week.
The reproduction number refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.
“There are several possibilities. Maybe our complacency contributed to the prolonged wave because we were expecting that it would last only 2 months, but we’re about to reach 2 months and we have yet to reach the peak,” he said.
“The other possibility is the subvariants that are spreading, the Omicron BA.5, BA.4, and the BA.2.12.1, and we can’t say if the BA.2.75 has arrived.),” David said.
He also said that though the country has yet to detect the BA.2.75 or the Centaurus subvariant, there was a possibility that it was already here.
“We project a similar wave to the current one where cases will increase but it won’t be that much. Maybe we’ll reach a few thousand cases in case the Centaurus subvariant enters the country,” he said.
“Or possibly it is already here and we just haven’t detected it because our genome sequencing is not that complete.),” he said.
In a tweet, David said Metro Manila was at moderate risk for COVID-19 as it recorded an average daily attack rate of 7.17 per 100,000 individuals.
“Overall, the NCR was at moderate risk. With a flat growth rate, it is not clear at this time when the peak in cases in the NCR will occur,” he said.
“But, again, these are just projections. As far as we can tell cases aren’t increasing that fast so this isn’t alarming,” he said.
David also said President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. should prioritize the economy, livelihood, and food security during his first State of the Nation Address.
“As for our COVID, we’ve been managing it well over the past months in 2022. We’re no longer implementing lockdowns,” he said.
David hoped that Marcos would address the country’s health capacities and systems as well as the concerns of medical frontliners, among which were issues on wages.
The DOH said that the total and ICU bed utilization rates for COVID-19, at both the national and regional levels, remain to be at low risk.
This is despite sustained case increases observed over the last month.
The DOH observed a slow and smaller upward trend of COVID-19 admission over the past week. Most of these admissions were asymptomatic and mild, numbering 1,471 or 59 percent of the 2,487 admissions.
As of July 24, 2022, national total bed utilization was at 26 percent, while ICU bed utilization was at 22 percent.
The reassuring situation was noted, despite the sustained case increases DOH recorded over the past month. 19,930 cases were reported from July 19 to July 25, averaging 2,847 cases per day.
This was higher by 30 percent compared to the country’s daily average from the previous week, at only 2,190 cases per day. Week by week, a larger seven-day moving average (7DMA) is being recorded. This is correlated with the observed increases in weekly positivity rates now at 14 percent nationally. The case increases were also observed across all age groups.
Our latest projections are showing that these case increases may translate to a spike in total and ICU admissions in October, if compliance with minimum public health standard (MPHS) continues to decline and booster rates remain low.
The DOH ensures that all hospitals and health facilities are able to provide appropriate critical care capacity that is accessible to all, especially to vulnerable individuals, to be able to maintain a decreased impact on the country’s health care system.
“With a continuous rise in COVID-19 cases, the DOH reminds the general public to remain vigilant and adhere to our minimum public health standards such as wearing the best-fitted masks, social distancing, and immediate isolation at the onset of symptoms.