The La Niña phenomenon in the Philippines, characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, is likely to persist until June to August 2022, based on climate models, state weather bureau PAGASA said.
The ongoing La Niña has slightly strengthened based on observed temperatures, PAGASA said during the 147th climate forum held April 27.
La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for “the girl,” by analogy to El Niño, meaning “the boy.”
The weather bureau said La Niña was responsible for increasing the likelihood of above-normal precipitation in some parts of the country.
In the same forum, PAGASA showed a rainfall forecast for the month of May.
Its forecast shows near normal (81 to 120 percent of normal) rainfall in almost the entire country, while above normal (>120 percent) rainfall is expected in Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, Negros Oriental, and Siquijor.
The rainfall forecast for the Angat watershed is also above normal.
The agency also said the onset of the rainy season associated with the southwest monsoon is expected to fall within the normal time.
Meanwhile, none or one tropical cyclone is expected for the month of May.
Past May tropical cyclones tended to recurve after landfalling over the eastern Visayas or the Bicol Region, PAGASA said.
Between eight and 14 tropical cyclones may form inside or enter the Philippine area of responsibility from June to October 2022.
The next eight names on the tropical cyclone list for 2022 are Caloy, Domeng, Ester, Florita, Gardo, Henry, Inday, and Josie.
Tropical cyclones Agaton and Basyang are the first weather disturbances to have hit the country.
As of 8 a.m. Thursday, a low-pressure area was 325 kilometers south-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, over the western edge of the Sulu Sea.
It is likely to develop into a tropical depression once over the West Philippine Sea.
The LPA, intertropical convergence zone, and easterlies will continue to bring rainy weather over Palawan, western and central Visayas, Zamboanga peninsula, and the Sulu archipelago. Flooding and landslides continue to threaten these areas, especially those that received
significant antecedent rainfall.