The Luzon power grid may face two instances of “red alert” and four “yellow alerts” in May, but after Election Day on May 9, according to the latest forecast of the Department of Energy (DOE).
“In consideration of historical events such as unscheduled forced outages that we are looking at, based on historical background, we ran simulations, we averaged the events that happened and what are the possibilities if we consider the forced outages and our basis is the last three years of average, we will have red alert after the election,” Mario Marasigan, director of the DOE Power Bureau, said during a virtual briefing Tuesday.
A red alert status, which could trigger brownouts, is issued when supplies are insufficient to meet consumer demand and the transmission grid’s regulating requirement.
A yellow alert is issued when the excess power is insufficient to meet the transmission grid’s regulating and contingency requirement, pegged at the time at about 495 MW and 647 MW, respectively.
“The red alerts may happen on (week of) May 16 and May 23, that means the two succeeding weeks after the May 9 election,” Marasigan said.
DOE also sees four instances of yellow alerts, as Energy Undersecretary Felix William Fuentebella said they are in coordination with the Commission on Elections since there are many causes of brownouts.
“Problems may not be connected to supply… There is a cause of concern and definitely there is a need for urgent action, and we have to plan,” Fuentebella said.
Energy officials, however, assured they have identified possible solutions.
“Initially without forced outages, we really don’t have a problem… we see forced outages, but we also have solutions,” Marasigan said.
DOE is banking on the availability of hydro power plants Kalayaan and San Roque by moving their maintenance schedules, the testing and commissioning of the San Miguel Mariveles and the Dinginin power plants to help provide additional capacity.
“Even if there is a delay in commercial operations of Dinginin 2, by April they will already start the testing and commissioning and at least 400 MW will be available on the grid. We are also recognizing that SMC Mariveles at least one unit will come in at 150 MW,” Marasigan said.
“Also another solution we are seeing, if we optimize Luzon-Visayas interconnection, there is an available 350 MW then we can avert the potential red and yellow alert levels,” he said.
Power transmission operator National Grid Corp. of the Philippines earlier warned against thin power supply in the next dry months, especially in May, on higher demand that may even exceed the pre-pandemic levels.
“Thin operating margins [power in excess of demand, which is used to manage and balance the grid] is forecasted in the Luzon grid from
April to June due to increase in demand during the summer, which includes the critical election period,” NGCP said in a statement.
NGCP cited the forecast of DOE of total peak demand of 12,387 megawatts for Luzon in the last week of May, representing an increase of 747 MW from the actual 2021 peak load of 11,640 MW which occurred on May 28, 2021. Peak demand in Luzon in May 2019 was at 11,344 MW.
Meanwhile, Senator Sherwin Gatchalian urged the DOE to address the power supply situation in the country before it gets worse since it has the legal mandate and power to compel industry players to follow policies on energy security.
“The DOE sounds inutile by passing the blame. It’s their job to assure the public on the sufficiency of power supply,” Gatchalian said, adding that DOE has the supervisory function over the industry.
“Lalo akong kinakabahan bilang isang kandidato sa darating na halalan dahil alam natin na automated ang election. Pag walang kuryente,
walang makinang makakabilang ng ating mga boto,” said Gatchalian.
“May kapangyarihan ang DOE na siguraduhin na sumusunod ang NGCP at mga pribadong power plants. Ang hindi sumunod ay maaaring patawan ng parusa ng Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC),” he added.
Gatchalian said his Committee on Energy is already set to conduct an inquiry next month on the plans and preparations of the DOE and other stakeholders to ensure that there will be no brownouts during the week of the conduct of elections four months from now.
He noted that when the DOE said in a virtual press conference in August last year that the country will have no power interruption during the election week this year as the initial outlook shows sufficient supply, the said outlook did not take into consideration the forced and unplanned outages and the declining Malampaya supply.
Yellow alerts were issued in the Luzon grid last January 10 and 11 after some generating units extended their maintenance shutdowns while
others derated their committed generation output.