The reproduction number of COVID-19 in Metro Manila dropped to 1.20 as of Jan. 19 from 2.95 a week ago, the independent OCTA Research Group said Sunday.
The reproduction rate refers to the number of people who can be infected by one case. A reproduction number below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.
In a post on Twitter, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said the drop in the one-week growth rate showed “a clear downward trajectory” in new COVID-19 cases.
Nonetheless, David said the National Capital Region remained at “very high risk” to COVID-19 and advised residents to practice caution and observe health protocols.The average daily attack rate (ADAR), while it declined to 72, was still at a “very high level.”
“Residents of NCR are advised to continue to practice extreme caution and strictly comply with health protocols in public areas,” David also said.
ADAR pertains to the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.
In another tweet, David also pointed out that provinces outside Metro Manila are at very high risk, citing the high ADAR in these areas.
Benguet recorded 703 new cases with a one-week growth rate of 120 percent while its ADAR was at 94.26.
Cavite registered 2,799 fresh infections with 1 percent one-week growth rate and 58.48 ADAR.
In Laguna, new infections were at 1,649, one-week growth rate was at 16 percent while ADAR was at 58.41.
Batangas documented 769 new cases with 3 percent one week growth rate and 26.68 ADAR.
David said cases may be peaking in Cavite and Batangas.
The Philippines logged 29,828 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, bringing the total number of cases to 3,417,216.
The positivity rate was at 41.8 percent based on 69,014 people tested on Jan. 21.
There were 273,580 active cases, of which 8,371 were asymptomatic; 260,399 were mild; 3,006 were moderate; 1,496 were severe; and 308 were critical.
The DOH reported 67 new fatalities, bringing the COVID-19 death toll to 53,472.
The DOH also reported 36,763 new recoveries, bringing the total recoveries to 3,090,164.
Nationwide, 51 percent of ICU beds, 52 percent of isolation beds, 53 percent of ward beds, and 24 percent of ventilators, were in use.
In Metro Manila, 48 percent of ICU beds, 46 percent of isolation beds, 52 percent of ward beds, and 27 percent of ventilators, were in use.
The Department of Health on Saturday said it is still too early to say if Metro Manila could deescalate to a more relaxed Alert Level 2 by February.
“We are monitoring this every day, but we cannot yet say if we can already deescalate by February here in the National Capital Region,” Health spokesperson Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said.