The House of Representatives is set to launch an investigation into OCTA Research Philippines, an independent research group that has gained media mileage for its projections and warnings about the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Five lawmakers have crossed party lines to file a resolution calling for a congressional inquiry into the “qualifications, research methodologies, partnerships and composition” of OCTA Research.
They are Deputy Speakers Bernadette Herrera of Bagong Henerasyon, Kristine Singson-Meehan of Ilocos Sur, and Sharon Garin of AAMBIS-OWA; Deputy Minority Leader Stella Luz Quimbo of Marikina, and Rep. Jesus Suntay of Quezon City.
Meanwhile the OCTA Research Group has assured the public that its projections are based on data and not merely theories as they urged the government for tougher pandemic management.
Dr. Guido David, during an online forum, said OCTA Research based its recommendation to implement “circuit-breaker” lockdown on the surge last late March 2021, wherein 4,519 new cases daily were registered.
Instead of a two-week lockdown, David said it took seven weeks to enforce the hard lockdown to reduce cases at 1,255 per day.
“We need to control the pandemic, we need to limit the number of deaths…. This is based on data. This is not based on theory. This was based on what happened in the past in the Philippines,” David said during a forum with members of the Federation Of Filipino Chinese Chambers Of Commerce & Industry, Inc.
“This is why we are confident in the recommendation,” he said.
In filing House Resolution 2075 dated August 3, the lawmakers urged the House Committee on Good Government and Public Accountability (also known as the Blue-Ribbon Committee), to conduct an inquiry in aid of legislation, to ascertain the credentials and background of the research group.
Beginning last year, several media outlets have cited warnings published by OCTA, with the latest one pushing for a “circuit breaker,” or hard lockdown this month.
“There is a public health and public policy need to ensure the safety and security of the population during this pandemic, and that information being distributed is correct and are not irresponsibly and erroneously published,” the lawmakers pointed out in the resolution.
They also underscored the need to “validate the connection between OCTA Research and the University of the Philippines System, as the former publicized a partnership which the latter seemingly denied.”
Previous infographics and press releases across press outlets and social media platforms refer to the “University of the Philippines-OCTA” group (UP-OCTA) or the “UP-OCTA Research Team” in predicting surges of COVID-19 cases. Moreover, OCTA Research fellow Professor Ranjit Rye has been quoted to refer to the group as the “UP-OCTA Research Team.”
However, UP Diliman Associate Professor Peter Cayton emphasized in one news report that there was no office within the campus named OCTA and that it does “not exist in UP’s organizational structure.”
Based on their website, OCTA describes itself as a “polling, research, and consultation firm” that provides “comprehensive, holistic, accurate, rigorous, and insightful data analysis to help our clients in government, the private sector and the NGO community.”
It also indicates that OCTA specializes in public opinion research, qualitative and quantitative research, policy research and advocacy, and training and capacity building.
The research group has not been spared from online criticism, with a number of netizens accusing them of “fear mongering.”
Even the Department of Health (DOH) and a member of the government’s Technical Advisory Group on COVID-19 has advised the group to “apply circumspection in making pandemic-related statements, in order to minimize public panic.”
“The main problem with OCTA’s case projection model is that it is based on cases reported in the last two weeks,” noted infectious disease expert Dr. Edsel Salvana.
“Even a student of clinical epidemiology will tell you that that is not valid because cases that happened within the last two weeks are subject to error, because some get tested later or earlier. There are backlogs, so if you are making projections based on data that is incomplete or erroneous, you are going to come out with erroneous projections,” he said.
OCTA Research lauded the government for imposing ECQ as early as August 6, which would hopefully take only two weeks to mitigate the spread of the highly contagious lockdown.
David said Metro Manila could record more than 2,500 cases per day until the end of August if the lockdown starts on August 16.
“What we are hoping to happen is two weeks of lockdown so by September, we will overcome this, and then we can have a strong fourth quarter, and strong final months for the economy and businesses,” David said.
“We can hope to recover what we have lost possibly during the first eight months of the year,” he added.
For his part, Prof. Ranjit Rye, another OCTA Research fellow, underscored the importance of using the projections to address the threat of COVID-19 surge.
“The point is not that we are correct. The point is we now understand that we have information, we need to work together to deal with the threat of the surge and then again, it is not OCTA being correct, it is about science,” Rye said.
With 20 percent of Metro Manila residents already fully vaccinated, David said they are seeing that 40 percent or close to 50 percent of residents will be fully inoculated by September or October depending on the vaccination rollout schedule.
“By fourth quarter, definitely, we are seeing possibilities that we will be having population protection in the NCR possibly before the end of the year,” he said.