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Friday, March 29, 2024

US-China war is unlikely

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US-China war is unlikely"Both know that engaging in armed confrontation is pure madness."

Napoleon Bonaparte, at the time Western powers were parceling Asian countries among themselves, warned Europe to watch out for China which he described as a “sleeping giant lion that once awake will shake the world.”

The lion is now wide awake and much-feared like its namesake as a predator.

Who is afraid of China? Is the lion now growling and on the prowl? Who is its target victim?

The central and disturbing question being asked is whether the war between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China is inevitable.

Is this apprehension valid?

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Will the lion gobble up Uncle Sam?

What is China’s agenda?

Xi Jinping, head of the ruling communist party, is single-mindedly determined to make China the richest and most powerful nation in the world. He wants to prove that his Leninist-Mandarin authoritarian government is superior to America’s capitalism and democracy. He wants to show that communism is more effective than the democratic system in bringing about progress and prosperity. His ambition is to make China ahead of the USA in all the most startling and terrifying advances in science and technology.

Xi has set timelines to attain his objectives. He wants China to be richer than the United States by 2025, to be much more advanced than the US in technological innovations and development by 2035, and to install China as the world’s greatest and most powerful nation by 2049, to coincide with the centennial anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China

Considered today as the world’s most powerful leader, Xi Jinping dreams to regain China’s prestige as the center of civilization and the seat of a glorious and majestic empire 2,000 years ago.

After the fall of the dynasties, China suffered depredation, invasion, and humiliation from Western powers. It was also during those years that China endured the rampaging army of Genghis Khan, the encroachments of Western countries, a costly war with Japan, an outcast status at the United Nation, the distinction of being an unwanted neighbor by the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and treatment by the United States as a non-existing nation.

China bravely struggled to survive; its economy was in doldrums, its over 1 billion people were in dire penury and want, and its future was uncertain.

It was only in the early 1970s, when the Cold War was nearing boiling point, that China suddenly appeared on the US radar screen.

President Richard Nixon unexpectedly visited China, bearing gifts, and an olive branch.

He officially recognized the People’s Republic of China as the rightful representative of the Chinese people. He restored diplomatic relations and sponsored China’s entry into the United Nations and the World Trade Organization.

President Ronald Reagan, Nixon’s successor, was even more generous. He gave China a whole package of military assistance which enabled the People’s Liberation Army to gain respect and stature as a military establishment.

President Jimmy Carter allowed thousands of Chinese students to enter prestigious universities and colleges in the United States on the pleading of Deng Xiao Ping.

Presidents George Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama provided the PROC and Chinese businessmen massive investments, loans, technological assistance and trade privileges which propelled China’s epochal and unprecedented economic, military and technological growth and development in just two decades.

It was only when China’s economy was threatening to be bigger than the US and its advances in science and technology were challenging Silicon Valley that the United States government and a number of leaders of the business community took notice of the outstanding and preposterous progress of China. The colossal growth and progress of China’s economy and its ascendancy in various fields of industries and technology alarmed the leaders of both the Republican and Democratic parties.

It was a wake-up call to the US citizens. They suddenly realized that China has taken advantage of their generosity and kindness; they were shocked to know that billions of trust funds were lent to Chinese business enterprises. They learned to their dismay that business secrets and technology are being stolen from US firms operating in China under restrictive rules and practices.

What was more shocking and ironic was that the incredible progress of China in just 20 years was largely credited to the United States. Former US presidents eagerly extended massive financial, military, and technological assistance to China with the hope that the PROC will gradually shed its totalitarian clothing. They were also expecting China to be grateful and reciprocal in their trade dealings.

In both spheres, the former US heads of state were disappointed.

It was these non-reciprocal and disadvantageous trade dealings which prompted President Trump to initiate bold moves to even the playing field. And reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries. These moves drew strong support from both sides of the political fence; something that seldom happens.

Americans realized that China is no longer an ally but an adversary.

This is what President Donald Trump feared even before he decided to run for the highest office.

Now he wants to get back what China has received, taken advantage of, or stolen from the United States.

He is now asking US businessmen to withdraw their investments, business operations, and technologies. He also called on US lending institutions to recall the loans they extended. The president likewise chided Wall Street for; posting Chinese firms in the New York stock exchange.

Trump initiated the trade war by imposing bigger tariffs on specific goods from Chinese manufacturers. His excuse was that he wants to cut the US trade deficit. But it was not a valid excuse. It was clearly a deft move to enhance his reelection chances. He has been very vocal though in denouncing China for its stealthy trade practices and for defying international protocols and agreements.

These alarming developments are generating the widespread fear and paranoia that an armed confrontation between the two superpowers is inevitable and imminent.

This disturbing concern is baseless. The doomsday scenario is not likely to happen.

China and the United States are in the throes of a failed and unhappy marriage.

The USA courted and married China for convenience,

The rich husband gave his bride valuable gifts to make her happy and cooperative. He even gave her parents, the Chinese Communist Party, all kinds of favors to make the family more affluent and exalted.

It was when the bride’s parents became very rich and arrogant that the bridegroom started distancing himself from his bride and her parents. The marriage turned sour but not bitter.

The couple remains good friends and on talking terms.

There is no cold or hot war between China and the United States. Trump is not afraid of Xi Jinping. His country is still more powerful, in military terms, still ahead in the technology race, and has more allies and allies in the geopolitical alignments.

Xi Jinping is deferential, courteous, and always eager to talk to Trump to thresh out problems and differences. Both claim to be good friends.

What is truly going on between the estranged couple is a friendly competition for enriching their respective domains. They are not only getting more prosperous but both are generous to their neighbors and other families trapped in poverty and hopelessness.

The Chinese Communist Party will not allow their daughter to be degraded or belittled by her husband. Xi Jinping, as head of the CCP and the unchallenged leader of the ruling standing Committee of the Politburo, is doing everything to make his family prosperous and happy. He has shown that he is even willingness to cut corners, bamboozle high officials who commit mistakes, inveigle leaders of some countries to secure their alliance and friendship, and at times renege on some promises and obligations to dramatize his outrage and displeasure. Cool and calculating, Xi is a learned politician who has a doctorate in law and political science.

His rise to power in the party was phenomenal, unprecedented and heroic. He earned respect, awe, and eminence through his uncompromising war against corruption. He exercises due diligence in choosing his friends and associates. He casts aside over thousands of former CCP officials on corruption charges. But he doesn’t hesitate to distance from them whenever they commit wrongdoing. Recently two of the five members of the seven-man standing committee are on house arrest on corruption charges. Both were his friends.

Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd described Xi as a born leader. Lee Kuan Yew has a very high regard for him. He is highly respected by most of the world’s heads of state.

He has his share of critics. Many others are perhaps truly afraid of him.

But neither praise nor criticism will divert Xi from his mission to make China the dominant nation of the world.

Whether Trump gets another term or Joe Biden will be sitting at the Oval office in November, a friendly dialogue between the two heads of state will still prevail.

A serious and objective analysis of the situation indicate that war between the USA and PROC is still remote and unlikely.

Both countries will still be confronted with formidable and more complex challenges within their own countries which will demand their immediate and priority concern.

Rebuilding their economies after the disastrous visit of the pandemic will be a taxing undertaking. At the moment, both countries are suffering mild recession which will discourage them from taking risky ventures or committing mistakes.

Xi may have to work double-time to attain his objectives since his timeline has been disrupted. .

But the irritants and tensions on pending issues will now need immediate attention and settlement. The flash points where the conflict could be ignited will still be there. All these residual concerns will hopefully give both the two superpowers the time to ponder more deeply on the terrifying consequences if the tensions building up between them are not addressed with candor and courage.

Both countries are more determined to liberate their people from poverty, build a strong middle class, and encourage wealth generation and affluence. Both will be catching up with the rapid and radical advances in science and technology. Both wish to give their people to live in peaceful and happy communities.

Both know that engaging in armed confrontation is pure madness. Why can’t then they work together and pursue their dreams in tandem and in harmony?

Political scholars and brilliant minds from the academe are one in their belief that both the two seemingly irreconcilable ideologies can now converge and exist alongside or mix up with each other now that they know their own and each other’s weaknesses and sad experiences. Both should now exchange ideas on how they can work together for their joint progress and peaceful co-existence

President John Kennedy’s advice was for conflicted countries to draw precious rules for the status quo. The two heads of state who decide to push the red button must be mad, which is spelled out as Mutual Assured Destruction.

For the past 70 years, the world has been at peace. Progress and prosperity has sprouted in most nations. The per capita incomes of ordinary citizens are increasing tremendously.

Nations are no longer seeking territorial expansion or planning invasions. They are now seeking partnerships to secure supply of vital minerals, energy, and riches underneath lands and beneath the seas.

The increasing sophistication and complexity of new technologies is radically altering the fabric of human civilization. Mankind should now focus on the horrendous disasters that a climate change will bring about.

Space travel and explorations to other planets of the universe are far more challenging concerns than resolving economic disputes.

Objective observers of geopolitical developments believe that the world has not only been completely transformed and liberated from its turbulent past but has avoided wars, survived pandemics, and that its falling into the Thucydides trap is clearly avoidable.

Thucydides came up with the theory that war is inevitable where a new country is threatening to dislodge he dominance of another. He documented the war between Athens and Sparta which earned for him the distinction of being the first political historian.

In a study by Graham Allison of 16 “traps” which fell under Thucydides theory, wars did happen on 12 of them.

In the case of the present conflict between China and the USA, neither one is too dominant or fearful of the other. Both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will not go to war which neither of them will win. Being good friends, a win-win solution to any contentious issue is to their liking.

They may have their idiosyncrasies and shortcomings, but Xi and Trump would not be holding in their hands today the fate of mankind if they are not of sound minds and in excellent health.

 

Mr. Ernesto G. Banawis is a student of government and history.

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