A climate and energy policy group predicted an electricity shortfall across the Luzon grid in the second quarter, especially during the weeks leading to and immediately after the elections in May.
The report by the Institute of Climate and Sustainable Cities said unreliable electricity supply would undermine the credibility of the elections.
“We need our electrical power system to provide reliable supply especially during election day and while transmitting data; otherwise our political power system might fail if the results are not accepted by our people,” said ICSC senior policy advisor Pedro Maniego Jr..
ICSC said the thinning operating reserves in the two-week period before (April 18 to May 1) and after (May 16 to 29) this year’s elections is already the most optimistic scenario, and is far from ideal because the projection does not account for the potential unplanned outages of coal power plants.
Given historical trends and current power reserve issues, ICSC said a 1,335-megawatt deficit in the country’s electricity supply during peak demand would lead to a red alert status and possible blackouts over the Luzon grid in the second quarter of 2022.
“Grid alert levels after unplanned outages of a few baseload plants show how vulnerable the power system can be to centralized generators. We experience rotating blackouts while still paying for high electricity costs. This emphasizes the more urgent need for an energy transition based on distributed energy sources. We need to pick up its pace, because we cannot keep returning to the same situation every year,” said ICSC chief data scientist and report co-author Jephraim Manansala.
Despite experiencing low demand requirements in the beginning of the year, the NGCP placed the Luzon grid on yellow alert in January on forced outages of four power plants with a total generating capacity of 1,331 megawatts.
The report recommended that the Department of Energy ensure the availability of power plants to their full dependable capacities and the completion of all committed projects that have target commercial operation before May this year to guarantee sufficient power supply in the second quarter.
“Apart from addressing power issues in times of peak demand, we also need to address this on a long-term basis. We are making our analysis available now so that citizens can contribute by conserving electricity, because all efforts will be needed even in the most optimistic power scenario,” ICSC energy transition advisor Alberto Dalusung III said.
The bulk of power consumption in the Philippines shifted to the residential sector in 2020, when most Filipinos were forced to stay home in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to ICSC, households could make a significant contribution to efficiency by minimizing electricity consumption from the peak hours of 10 a.m. to 2 p.m.. On the other hand, businesses and other private institutions could also augment power supply through solar rooftop installations, especially during the dry months.
“The energy transition does not mean simply going to renewables, it also means wiser, better use of energy. We as citizens have to do our share,” Dalusung said.
ICSC is a Manila-based climate and energy policy group advancing climate resilience and low carbon development.