Power transmission operator National Grid Corp. of the Philippines on Tuesday warned against thin power supply in the next dry months, especially in May, on higher demand that may even exceed the pre-pandemic levels.
“Thin operating margins [power in excess of demand, which is used to manage and balance the grid] is forecasted in the Luzon grid from April to June due to increase in demand during the summer, which includes the critical election period,” NGCP said in a statement.
It cited a need for policies to support demand side management and ensure adequate power in the upcoming national elections in May.
“NGCP, in compliance with its mandate, coordinated with the generation and distribution sectors so that we could optimize and rationalize our own maintenance schedules, to ensure sufficiency, at least on paper, of power supply throughout the year,” the company said.
The Department of Energy forecast total peak demand of 12,387 megawatts for Luzon in the last week of May, representing an increase of 747 MW from the actual 2021 peak load of 11,640 MW which occurred on May 28, 2021. Peak demand in Luzon in May 2019 was at 11,344 MW.
Peak demand in the Visayas occurred in December last year due to the holiday season. The peak demand is seen to reach 2,528 MW this year from 2,252 MW last year.
Mindanao peak demand occurred in August which is forecast to reach 2,223 MW this year from 2,144 MW last year.
NGCP said it was coordinating the preparation and submission to the DOE of an annual grid operating and maintenance program, which is the consolidated preventive maintenance schedules of power plants, considering the needed supply to meet the projected demand.
The 2022 GOMP was approved by the DOE on Jan 10 in compliance with the directive of the DOE that no maintenance shutdowns should be scheduled during the summer months.
Some generating units extended their maintenance shutdowns in January while others derated to decrease their committed generation output.
As a result, yellow alerts were issued on Jan. 10 and 11. A yellow alert is issued when the excess power is insufficient to meet the transmission grid’s regulating and contingency requirement, pegged at the time at about 495 MW and 647 MW respectively.
“On paper, there appears to be sufficient supply to meet demand; but the plan on paper, the GOMP, is not always followed. It is when there are unscheduled shutdowns and derations, and extensions of maintenance duration that grid operations may be disrupted enough to warrant the issuance of a grid alert status,” said NGCP.
“As the transmission service provider, NGCP can only give an overview of the current supply and demand situation, and endeavor to dispatch any and all available grid resources. It cannot intervene on matters concerning power generation,” it said.
A red alert status is issued when supplies are insufficient to meet consumer demand and the transmission grid’s regulating requirement. Red alerts were issued over the Luzon Grid on May 31 and June 1 and 2 last year when a similar round of extended and unplanned maintenance shutdowns and derations occurred, depleting excess supplies and leading to rotational power interruptions across Luzon.
To alleviate possible power shortages, NGCP appealed to policy makers to immediately explore demand side management strategies to mitigate any possible power supply issues in the coming summer months, especially at or around the time of the presidential elections.
NGCP is a Filipino-led, privately owned company in charge of operating, maintaining and developing the power grid, led by majority shareholders and vice chairman of the board Henry Sy Jr. and co-vice chairman Robert Coyiuto Jr.
Meanwhile, the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry called on the government to smartly assess the procurement of coal to meet the demands of the growing economy and diversify its energy-supply mix to eventually reduce its dependence on coal.
The group raised its concerns with Senator Sherwin Gatchalian in a recent meeting to discuss Indonesia’s banning of coal exports.
“Indonesia’s action could heavily impact on the supply and cost of electricity in the country,” said PCCI president George Barcelon. Power generated by coal comprises 60 percent of the country’s power mix. With Othel V. Campos