The interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee on Wednesday downgraded the 2021 gross domestic product growth forecast by two percentage points, from the previous range of 6 percent to 7 percent to a band of 4 percent to 5 percent, amid the latest enhanced community quarantine in Metro Manila.
It said in a statement the revision was “in light of the re-imposition of stricter mobility restrictions in various areas of the country to effectively address the heightened risks brought about by the COVID-19 Delta variant.”
The DBCC said its careful balancing of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 risks in the first half allowed the country to improve GDP growth to 11.8 percent in the second quarter, a sharp reversal of the 3.9-percent contraction in the first quarter and 17-percent decline a year ago.
“Without the present spike, the original growth target of 6.0 to 7.0 percent would have been achievable. However, with the global emergence of the Delta variant, the second-half growth outlook was revised downwards to reflect the additional restrictions imposed by the government, which are necessary to curb its spread,” the economic team said.
It said the strategy is to continue managing the risks carefully by imposing granular quarantines, while allowing a vast number of people to earn a living.
“We will continue to use this period to accelerate the roll-out of the vaccination program,” said the committee, which includes the Department of Finance, the Department of Budget and Management and the National Economic and Development Authority.
Data showed that as of Aug. 15, some 27.8 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the country, consisting of 15.2 million and 12.6 million for the first and second doses, respectively.
“Rest assured that we will continue to work closely with the local government units and the private sector to accelerate the country’s vaccination rates,” the DBCC said.
The country achieved an all-time high of 710,482 jabs in a day on Aug. 5, while in the past week, the average daily jabs reached more than 475,000. The DBCCC said at this rate, and with recent vaccine deliveries arriving as scheduled, it remained confident that the government could inoculate the required number of individuals, particularly in the densely populated areas, by the end of 2021.
“We expect that this will significantly reduce the need for wide-scale quarantines, especially in key economic centers where the majority of Filipinos work,” it said.
The DBCC retained its growth targets for 2022 at 7.0 percent to 9.0 percent, and for 2023 and 2024 at 6.0 percent to 7.0 percent.
It said it would continue to monitor the effects of the Delta variant and the enforcement of community quarantines, and proactively manage the risks to help the economy recover.
Economists earlier said the two-week lockdown in Metro Manila from Aug. 6 to 20 might be extended over the rising cases of new infections.