Inflation rate likely rose to as high as 1.5 percent in February from 1.3 percent in January, according to economists polled by The Standard.
Analysts and economists polled by The Standard said inflation rate likely fell within a range of 1.1 percent to 1.5 percent in February, considering the impact of the El Niño dry spell and transport fare reduction.
ANZ Research economist Eugenia Victorino said the February inflation likely inched up to 1.5 percent in February. “We expect headline inflation in the Philippines to have returned to its upward path, rising to 1.5 percent year-on-year in February,” Victorino said in an e-mail.
“The gains in diesel prices marginally offset the continued decline in gasoline prices. Meanwhile, electricity prices rose over the month of February. On a sequential basis, consumer prices should have risen 0.3 percent month-on-month. We expect core inflation to have remained soft at 1.6 percent year-on-year,” Victorino said.
ING Bank economist Joey Cuyegkeng said inflation may have picked up by 0.1 percentage point from January’s 1.3-percent rate, following the adverse effects of the El Niño dry spell.
“Impact of El Niño and agriculture problems continue, including output from fisheries and poultry being affected by Newcastle disease . Core inflation [was] likely to remain steady at around 1.8 percent year-on-year,” Cuyegkeng said in a separate e-mail.
“We expect gradual increase in inflation rate to average out at 2 percent this year, ending the year at around 2.7 percent. We are closely monitoring not only the impact of agriculture production but also oil with a possible March meeting of major oil producers,” he said.
Standard Chartered economist Jeff Ng, however, said inflation in February likely eased to 1.2 percent.
“Petrol prices were adjusted downwards and then upwards in February, while food prices remained largely stable. Inflation ex-food and energy registered a modest m/m [month-on-month] increase but slowed to 1.9 percent year-on-year from 2.3 percent in December. This likely suggests little inflationary pressures at the moment,” Ng said in an e-mail.
“We expect the inflation rate to edge up slowly in 2016 to the central bank’s target of 2 to 4 percent. Benign inflation should allow Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to keep policy rates unchanged in March,” he said.
Finance undersecretary and chief economist Gil Beltran earlier said inflation would slightly pick up to 1.4 percent. “Low rise in prices may be attributed to the continued depression in oil prices,” he said.
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governr Amando Tetangco Jr. said last week he expected inflation in February to fall within a range of 0.9 percent to 1.7 percent.