spot_img
27.5 C
Philippines
Friday, March 29, 2024

Is Duterte unstoppable?

- Advertisement -

Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte apparently has seized the lead in the presidential race with 32 percent of the total vote, seven percentage points ahead of Senator Grace Poe’s 25 percent, according to the Pulse Asia-ABS CBN five-day survey that ended April 10, 2016.  Assuming a voter turnout of 80 percent or 43.44 million, Duterte is likely to garner 13.9-million votes, 3.04-million votes more than Poe’s expected 10.86-million votes.

Duterte has momentum.  The worst of his campaign, the rape comment, is not expected to do much damage to the Bad Boy of Davao.

If ethno-linguistics demographics comes into play in the final two weeks of the campaign, the foul-mouthed mayor could pad his current 13.9 million votes easily by 2.9-million votes from two regions alone—1.5 million from Mindanao and 1.47 million from vote-rich Cebu.

In Pulse Asia as of April 10, 2016, third placer is Vice President Jejomar Binay with 20 percent (equivalent to 8.68-million votes).  Administration candidate Manuel Araneta Roxas is ensconced at 18 percent (about 7.8-million votes).

The Pulse Asia-ABS CBN survey seems reliable. It has 4,000 registered voters as respondents (in polling, the more people you ask, the greater is your finding closer to reality) and the margin of error is 1.5 percentage points. So if you add 1.5 percent to Poe’s 25 percent (and get 26.5) and you deduct the same 1.5 percent from Duterte’s 32 percent (to net 30.5), does she catch up with the frontrunner?  No.  The mayor still ends up with a four percentage- point margin or about 1.73-million votes.

- Advertisement -

Thus, to beat Duterte, Poe must produce not just three million more votes to tie his 32 percent plus another two-million votes to win the presidency by a comfortable margin.  That means gaining five-million votes between this writing and May 9, or within two weeks. Where will she get those votes?

To generate that avalanche, Poe must produce a message so stunning it will change voters’ mind about voting for Duterte and shift their support for her.

In a national election, it takes about a month to transmit that kind of message.  Even the death of Cory Aquino in August 2009 took about two months in voters’ minds to sink before a groundswell developed to propel her son BS Aquino III’s presidential candidacy.

To bring down Duterte, a rival must generate so vicious a black propaganda it will shatter the mayor’s political image beyond repair.  How do you make a self-confessed bad boy worse?  He was expelled twice from his schools.  He admits to killing people.  He vows to kill more people, if elected.  He admits to habitual womanizing and kissing women without provocation.   And he admits to having wanted to rape that Australian missionary woman who was held hostage by rioting Davao prisoners and who was repeatedly raped before she was killed.   He thinks like a king and a warlord. 

As for Binay and Mar Roxas, the odds are against their staging a come-from-behind victories, despite their vaunted political machines.  Duterte is ahead of Binay by 5.2-million votes and of Roxas by 6.0-million votes.  

In my observation of past presidential elections, a candidate that far a distance from the frontrunner can cheat only up to two- million votes (using all kinds of machinery) and no more.  Cheat beyond two-million votes and you create a scandal so outrageous and atrocious it will probably spill people into the streets in violent protest, and your clan will forever be banished from the face of the political earth.

Besides, buying two-million votes at P1,000 per vote is P2 billion.  Only the Comelec is efficient and corrupt enough to sell you that huge chunk of votes and probably for a much less amount.  But can Comelec stomach that rape of democracy?

Nationwide, the cheater just gets tired, empties his war chest unnecessarily and will think twice before gambling his grandchildren’s inheritance. 

One option for the laggards is to consolidate their regional bailiwicks.  Binay is considered an Ilocano and an Ibanag but then Cebuano speakers outnumber Ilocanos by a ratio of 2.7 to one, according to Unesco data.

Mar Roxas is Ilonggo or Hiligaynon but then again, Cebuanos outnumber Ilonggos by a ratio of three to one.  Grace Poe is reckoned as both from Luzon (Fernando Poe was from Pangasinan) and Ilonggo (she is foundling from Iloilo).  Again, Cebuanos outnumber Pangasinenses by a ratio of 8.7 to one—nearly eight Cebuano speakers for every Pangalatok.

In basically Tagalog Metro Manila, Duterte has matched Poe’s popularity.  Both have identical 32 percent, per Pulse Asia April 10.  However, Poe beats Duterte by a ratio of two to one (41 percent vs 22 percent, per Laylo) in Southern Luzon or Calabarzon, the Philippines’ vote-richest region. Poe would have 1.89-million votes in Calabarzon to Duterte’s 1.0 million, barely a one-million vote advantage.

In terms of regional languages spoken thus, Duterte has very strong upside potential.   The probinsyano-looking mayor from the south so far has (per Pulse Asia), 58 percent of Mindanao, a region that can give him up to 80 percent of its vote. 

In the sample size of pollsters like Laylo, Mindanao is credited with 23.3 percent of national votes or 10.13-million votes, or 8.1-million votes assuming an 80-percent turnout. Duterte has already has  4.7 million of that.  With 80 percent voter loyalty, he could conceivably generate additional 1.5-million votes.

In the Visayas, Duterte enjoys only 29 percent of the vote, per Pulse Asia of April 10.   Visayas has 20 percent of national vote of 43.44 million or 8.69 million of which 6.95 million could be the voter turnout.  So 29 percent of 6.95 million is 2.0-million votes.  Cebuano speakers are easily half of Visayans.  So Duterte should get at least 3.47 million out of the 6.95 million expected Visayan voter turnout.  So 3.47 minus 2.0 million is 1.47 million—what Duterte could get in additional Cebuano votes.

From Mindanao and Visayas alone, the PDP-Laban presidential candidate could swing nearly three million more votes—1.5 million from Mindanao and 1.47 million from Cebu.  Western Visayas (Region 6) is in Mar Roxas’s grip with 60 percent. Region 6 has five percent of national votes or 1.73 million in voter turnout terms.  Mar has one million of that; Duterte has a paltry four percent or 69,200 votes.

biznewsasia@gmail.com

 

- Advertisement -

LATEST NEWS

Popular Articles