2020

"Elections in the US and Taiwan bear watching."

Before we even think of our 2022 presidential elections, there’s 2020—in the United States of America, and in neighboring Taiwan.

Taiwan is now in the midst of the campaign for presidential elections on Jan. 10, 2020, now less than 90 days away.

The US of A will have its election for the most powerful presidency in the world come November of 2020.

In Taiwan, the protagonists have already been defined: Reelectionist President Tsai Ing-wen of the “green” DPP, main challenger Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu of the “blue” KMT, and a third candidate, former Taiwan Vice President Annette Lu of the Formosa Alliance.

Earlier in the year, it seemed like Mayor Han, who wrested a two-decade DPP control of Kaohsiung, was a very strong contender after the showing of the Kuomintang in the mid-term elections of November 2018. 

President Tsai even had to contend with a challenge from her former Premier, William Lai within the DPP.

But then, the protests in Hong Kong began, now on its 19th week, with the end still up in the air.  It all began with an extradition law, since withdrawn by leader Carrie Lam, but which exposed the hazards of the “one country, two systems” policy that governed the relationship of the former British colony to the mainland.

The  PROC insists that Taiwan is a province, and Pres. Xi Jinping is resolute about reclaiming sovereignty over it, albeit willing to adopt the “two systems” policy. But what is touted as the curtailment of political rights by Hong Kong protesters similarly unnerves the Taiwanese, where democratic freedoms are practiced and individual rights recognized.

The public mood quickly swung to pro-independence DPP, with President Tsai gaining survey margins ever since over her opponents, particularly Mayor Han of the KMT.

Still, 90 days is a long time in a campaign, and Taiwan politics is too difficult to read until the end.

The final outcome in January will likewise determine the stance of China over Taiwan, with repercussions beyond just the South China Sea peripheral nations like the Philippines, but also the US of A, with which Taiwan in its contemporary history has tied its security and political umbilical cord.

Which brings us to the muddled politics of the United States where, 13 months from now, their citizens will decide if Donald Trump should be retained as president or consigned to the dustbin of history.

Unless impeached by the House of Representatives and tried and convicted by the Senate, Donald Trump is on his way to being the Republican candidate for reelection.  Rarely has an incumbent been denied re-election candidacy by his party.

As of now, Trump seems beleaguered by the unraveling of his under-handed tactics against former Vice President Joe Biden over the Ukrainian business links of Biden’s son.  Even his personal lawyer, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, is facing criminal prosecution for violation of lobbying laws vis-à-vis the Ukrainian fiasco.

Although the economy is doing relatively well, and Trump’s pushing of the envelope in the US-China trade talks seems to be gaining points, American legislators, even from within Republican ranks, are re-thinking their support for this irascible and amoral president.

The next few weeks will be critical for Donald Trump. His handling of Syria and the Turkish assault on the Kurds who have allied themselves with the US and the West against the IS forces has brought nothing but ill will.

But even as Trump’s defenses are being breached, the Democrats are likewise in a quandary as to who they should field in November next year.

Until the  primaries, which will begin in February next year, start the winnowing process, there are a multitude (more than 20) of presidential wannabes seeking the party nomination.

There is former Vice President Joe Biden, currently leading the pack but followed not too far behind by Senator Elizabeth Warren, Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, Michael Bennet  of Colorado, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Senator Beto O’rourke of Texas, Kamala Harris of California, Mayor Pete Buttigieg  of South Bend, Indiana, and of course, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, among many others.

If Trump is not impeached, he could regain political strength, especially with bedrock support among the so-called WASPs (white Anglo-Saxon Protestants) and the red-necks who strongly oppose the liberalism that has swept US policy  from the sixties.

The Democrats will need to choose someone who can straddle the divide between conservative and liberal politics. Embracing their usual liberal causes may just polarize the electorate more, and drive independent-minded voters away from the polls come November next year.

In the American system of winning through the electoral college (where the winner takes all) instead of through the popular vote, the Democrats will need to study their numbers very well, and will try to recapture their former strongholds in the South.

Hopefully, with a considerable number of Republicans getting dismayed at Trump’s amoral character and transactional politics, he may get himself thrown out of the White House, or the party may choose someone else, say someone like Mitt Romney for 2020.

The elections of 2020, particularly those of the US and Taiwan, surely bear watching, especially by Asians caught up between the power rivalry between the Chinese dragon and the American eagle.