"China leads"
"China leads"
In the span of histories, 70 years is a wink of an eye, a gust of wind as the world spins, a spark. China changed a feudal society to a modern technological power, liberated its women from subservience to being equals of men, changed an impoverished nation to a vibrant powerhouse—all in what seems now like a scintilla of time.
This could not have been imagined even in the year that Premier Deng Xiaoping started the opening up of China to the world. It raised per capita disposable income in 1949 at RMB 50 to today’s RMB 28,228.00 and lifted 700 million impoverished people to health and abundance. Even more amazing in that short span of time is that China is rising to be the second largest economy in the World.
How did China’s leadership manage to achieve this feat, given the enormity of the problem it faced in in 1949 with 541,700,000 impoverished people, a feudal economy, the inertia of 4,000 years of ancient traditions, hostile forces exerting constant pressure, a war in Korea just the year after the new republic’s founding, and ideological-political turmoil in the first two decades of its life?
China attributes this triumph to its “socialism with Chinese characteristics” which consists of the Chinese civilization’s unique ability phrased so well by Premier Deng Xiaoping, in “crossing the river by feeling the stones,” while remaining true to the Communist Party of China’s “scientific thought” that echoes the Confucian “seek truth from facts” from the time of the Han Dynasty.
China’s 70-year sojourn has not been without slips and falls as the rupture with the Soviet Union, and the initial experiments at social reorganization and crash industrialization, and then political turmoil. Still, at each turn of events, China learned. Once a program is decided, it goes ahead full steam with the entire nation marching to the tune of the “March of the Volunteers.”
China’s success has invited reaction from the 20th century powers seeing its supremacy challenged: The prospect of a “Thucydides Trap” and the question “Can China be stopped?” arises.
From all indications the answer is that it can be slowed but not stopped, a reality exemplified by the recent Huawei experience that has seen the Chinese tech power rise despite political and economic war the U.S. waged against it.
There is a main factor assuring the continuous rise and continuing growth of China’s highly educated middle class and moneyed consumer market that is larger than the U.S. and far more consolidated than the E.U. both of which are stagnating, too. China’s technological base is at least equal to the rest, and it leads in certain sectors such as 6G, super computers, AI, drones.
China’s R & D, according to the OECD, already is the top patent filer in the world since 2010. The number is growing. Surging R & D spending by China has rocketed it to close second to the U.S. and a far second to Japan’s third place. China is becoming the top innovation center of the world aside from being unquestionably the top manufacturing power.
Being the top manufacturer of the world has also allowed China to be among the top defense production center, building up its traditionally defense weak spot—the PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy). In many reports, including Reuter’s David Lague and Benjamin Kang Lim’s “China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific” says “China now rules the waves in what it calls the San Hai, or “Three Seas”: the South China Sea, East China Sea and Yellow Sea. In these waters, the U.S. and its allies avoid providing the Chinese navy.”
Rand Corporation, the U.S. defense think tank, said in its 2016 report “War with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable’” that concluding a U.S. war with China in its own turf may not be winnable for the U.S. anymore. To this day, this study is still the subject of American discussion and debate, meanwhile China’s fleet now surpasses the U.S. fleet 400 ships to 288 according the Reuter’s report above.
In the air, the general view is that the U.S. still enjoys numerical and technological advantage in a war with China, although China is seen even by the U.S. defense department as “narrowing the gap” with its 2,000 air combat assets while the U.S. 5,047 manned aircraft is spread across the globe. The DF-41 multiple-nuclear warhead hypersonic ICBM narrows the nuclear gap even further against the U.S.Given all these factors, the U.S. is unlikely to start a war with China.
In the 70th anniversary parade of the founding to the People’s Republic, one much awaited event was the rollout of the Dong Feng 41 missiles, and the World was not denied the sight of the multiple-nuclear warhead hypersonic ICBM that is said to be uninterceptable and can reach any part of the U.S. Could this assure China’s victory, as Sun Tzu said, “The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.”
For China, victory is to win peace and prosperity for itself and the world. That is the constant message from China the past decade and a most resounding but likely most neglected theme of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the PROC. But watching the day-to-night celebration, one notes at the ending of the celebrations, through the fireworks, the mass assembly on the Tienanmen grounds forming different symbols and characters readable by aerial video, concluded with a dove that formed into a symbol of the globe and then formed the characters for New Era, China believes it is leading the new era for the world to attain world peace and prosperity.