President Rodrigo Duterte wants American troops out of Mindanao so they won’t be targeted by Abu Sayyaf terrorists. Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, however, said the 107 US Special Forces will remain in place because the Philippines needs them for their technological assistance. The US provides the drones and surveillance planes to track the movements of the Abu Sayyaf in Sulu and Basilan. Which is which? The defense secretary is contradicting the statement of his own president. Barely in its first 100 days in office, the norm has been contradiction, clarification and explanation of what the President said in context. Officials try to outdo each other defending their boss. The result is that issues become more muddled as House Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez, Labor Secretary Silvestre Bello and Presidential Legal Adviser Salvador Panelo try to do the job of Communications Secretary Martin Andanar.
Aside from stating he wants the small number of US troops in Mindanao to leave, Duterte also stunned foreign observers when he announced he was planning to purchase weapons from China. What? He wants to buy armaments from a country that poses an external threat to us and encroaching in the West Philippine Sea?
If the planned purchase goes through, what guarantee does the Philippines have these weapons are not sub-standard? And if up to quality specifications, will spare parts be always available and not withheld in case of an armed confrontation over the territorial dispute?
Why procure the weaponry from China when we can source it from allies like the US, Israel, Japan and South Korea? Japan has already donated several patrol boats to bolster our maritime security while the US has provided two destroyers under the US-PHL military cooperation agreement.
Meanwhile, many are wondering: What ever happened to the back channel mission of Special Envoy to China, former President Fidel Valdez Ramos? He was supposed to patch things up with the Chinese after Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that Beijing’s sweeping nine-dash line claim in the South China Sea was illegal. Analysts and observers do not see the prospect of China moving away from its hard-line position. Through its foreign minister and defense minister, China has declared it will not budge an inch of territory already acquired through artificial island-building for its military installations. The questions is whether China would be willing to risk a military confrontation with Pacific power United States with its advanced war planes and warships. China may have the superior number of troops with its People’s Liberation Army, but any armed conflict in this flashpoint in Asia is not going to be the conventional ground war like the Korean and Vietnam wars of many years ago. This is going to be a battle of high-tech weapons using missiles, aircraft carriers and sophisticated war planes in which the US, at this point, still has the edge.
There is also another weapon which the US and probably the European Union could use against the threat of a rising and aggressive China. This is economic sanctions and boycott of Chinese exports. China depends on these largely for its economic and domestic stability.
Alongside the issue of whether US forces would remain or leave, there are recurring rumors that certain “yellow” elements want President Duterte to go via impeachment. Vice President Leni Robredo, as the highest elected and ranking Liberal Party official, laid the issue to rest saying there’s no such impeach-Duterte move being plotted by the spent force of former President Benigno S. Aquino III whose followers are known as the yellow horde.
How the impeach rumor started is beyond the ken of political observers. It is too early in the game, and one has to consider the President’s “supermajority” in the House of Representatives headed by Speaker Alvarez who support Duterte. Any impeachment process starts in the House and is only forwarded to the Senate after deliberations of a House panel and then a three-fourths majority vote on the plenary floor.
But for his occasional faux pax in the field of foreign policy and international relations, Duterte is scoring points on the domestic front. Aside from the public support for the war on illegal drugs, the crime rate, according to the PNP, is down. Nine of the suspects in the deadly Davao night market bombing have been arrested after weeks of hard police intelligence work.
Overseas Filipino workers also welcomed the government’s policy to exempt them from paying travel tax if they are just returning to work for the same employers. This saves the OFWs the grief of having to secure exemptions and paying the tax repeatedly.