Economists from the private sector expect the inflation rate to continue on its downward trajectory in the months ahead mainly due to easing global oil prices and lower prices of rice, results of a survey conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas in June 2019 showed over the weekend.
The mean inflation forecast for 2019 decreased to 2.9 percent from 3.3 percent in the March survey. Similarly, the mean inflation forecasts for 2020 and 2021 declined to 3.2 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, from 3.4 percent during the same review period.
“Analysts expect inflation to remain manageable and within the government’s target range, with risks to the inflation outlooks likely to be broadly balanced,” the BSP said.
The key upside risks to inflation are seen to emanate from the adverse effect of weather conditions, brought about by weak El Niño condition on domestic food supply; volatile global crude oil prices; and higher domestic demand, particularly in the fourth quarter due to the Christmas season.